This weekend, we’ve got a PPV card at Atlanta. DraftKings has some solid competitions for us to win a great deal of money from this week and that I can not wait to chase those big prizes. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $30k belongs to 1st place with a total of $150k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first location price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 admissions that match. I will try to receive my 2nd and 3rd chairs this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those overly hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and toss 100 or so entries at the $30k prize, and then I will probably have a few shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to get a good quantity of drama into money games.
With that said, let us get into a few plays I like this week along with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of this week — STACK — Max Holloway $9,100 and Dustin Poirier $7,100
This was the first thing I did when salaries were released. I put these two fighters in my cash lineup and I started building from there. I expect this to be one of the greatest fights of all time and that I think we get ~200 total DK points from this fight, plus the guaranteed win. I’m okay with taking the loss when I can guarantee myself over 100 points together with the stack, but I think 150 is a safe projection for this fight and if we can lock up 3 additional wins we ought to win the vast majority of our money games. As I always say, we do not want 6 wins for money games so there is actually no need to chase it. Just lock in a safe lineup that you think will score more than 400 total points and you ought to acquire more H2Hs than you lose.
GPP drama of this week — Nikita Krylov — $8,200
Krylov is my GPP play of the week because he is the definition of bust or boom. He either loses or scores over 100 DK points. That’s what we desire in GPPs. This isn’t a sure choice in him winning it is only a shot at his ceiling that is what we search for in the big GPPs where we’re attempting to acquire the top $30k prize. Krylov has completed all 24 of his own wins and he has just seen the 3rd round once in his career. This is a great fight to target on either side, but I am taking Krylov to get the win and I have a good amount of vulnerability to him this weekend.
Underdog drama of this week — Dustin Poirier — $7,100
I needed to put Poirier here. I adore his floor and I think he is a live underdog. But IF he wins, he will 100 percent wind up about the 1st place lineup at his 7.1k price-tag. He’s going to score over 100 DK points when he is able to find a success here and that is what we are pursuing in GPPs. Even in the event that you think Max is going to dominate Poirier I think you ought to have at least 1 hedge lineup utilizing Poirier, and this is an all-purpose struggle for me. Every lineup I construct will start with Dustin or Max and I will go on from there. Load up with this battle and be sure to find some Poirier exposure.
Fade of the week — Boston Salmon ($8,600)
It was tough to select a fade of this week this week since I believe that you can make an argument for rostering everyone. I wanted to pick a favorite though and I think that the favored with among the lower ceilings is Salmon. I am picking him to win but he will not be heading for any takedowns and if he doesn’t get a finish that he probably doesn’t pay off his $8.6k price tag. I want at least 10x (86-points) when I am rostering someone and I don’t see him getting that unless he gets a knockout. Taha is hard so that I don’t see the knockout happening. I believe Salmon does make a unanimous decision win here but it likely scores in the 70’s and that will not win us the big $30k. That’s why he is my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight about the card and give my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link too. I’m 66-41 for +220.23un (+$22,023) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
Read more here: http://www.loyss.com/mma-odds-and-ends-for-wednesday-wonderboy-vs-pettis-millender-vs-dos-santos-booked/
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