This weekend we have an early card Sunday morning (10:30am ET). I really do like these early cards so I can wake up and have a DraftKings sweat and go out and enjoy the rest of the day once the fights are over. This Sunday’s card will occur in Hamburg, Germany and there are plenty of fighters producing their UFC debut. For this reason, I believe we should have a big edge this week if we place in the job. Most casual players won’t be doing research on those titles they’ve not heard and will just be throwing lineups trying to get lucky and hit a big score. I’ll personally be pursuing the large $15k top prize in the 8 GPP in addition to the Qualifiers. The majority of my investment will be in money games, mainly H2Hs, but I will be taking numerous shots at those huge prizes. Listed below are a Couple of plays I enjoy this week as well as my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — Stack (Anthony Smith $8,700 AND Shogun Rua $7,500)
It is a tough card that Sunday and I believe we will see a lot of people making errors in cash games. Whenever I believe I can guarantee a complete 100+ points in a fight, I like to pile it in my cash games and lock in those points. I think this battle is going to be a fun one and I highly doubt it goes to the scorecards. I believe we can see numerous knockdowns too that would help, but I believe we readily get over 100+ points combined with both of these guys. Let us let everybody else make the errors and we could lock at a 100+ points and a win, then we just have to find another 3 wins we’re confident in.
GPP drama of the week — Manny Bermudez ($9,200)
I believe this matchup was set up for Bermudez a triumph. He has quite a slick entry game and when this fight goes to the floor I think he will pick up progress points quickly and locate a submission. Grant has had problems with entry defense in his career and even if he is winning on the feet, he shoots for takedowns each struggle. I believe if Manny can’t get the takedown himself, Grant will eventually go to it himself and it’ll cost him. I think we could observe a 1st round submission here and that should easily get the 10x+ we are looking for at his $9.2k price tag.
Underdog play of this week — Shogun Rua ($7,500)
If Shogun can win this fight he will easily repay this price tag. He has 100-point upside and with a $7.5k salary that will certainly place him on the winning lineup if he can get there. Anthony Smith has been knocked out more times than Shogun and has fought much worse competition. I wouldn’t be surprised if Shogun is able to get a KO here against Smith, who’s taking this fight on short notice. Shogun has noticeably slowed down from the last few years but I think that he still has enough in the tank to pull off an upset victory . I do want exposure to both guys in GPPs, however I think you want some exposure to Rua if you’re making multiple lineups.
Fade of this week — Nick Hein ($8,500)
I have quite a few fades this week and I am going with a smaller player pool in hopes of my own picks being right and that I can hit the right combo. It is hard to pick one favorite fade this week but I shall pick Nick Hein. I really do think Nick Hein will win this battle, and I believe he’ll use takedowns to get the decision win here. Thus, you would think that sounds good on DraftKings since wrestling racks up points. But, he does not chain together takedowns and that he ends up with just 1 or 2 in his UFC wins. He doesn’t have much completing ability and I really don’t see him getting a entry. However, I believe we will see 2-3 takedowns here and him grinding his way into a Unanimous Decision victory just as we’ve seen from him in the past. Hein has 4 UFC wins and all these are his DraftKings game titles for those wins: 53 points, 58 points, 65 points, and 71 points. At $8.5k, I am not interested in having any DK investment on Hein with those scores. That’s why he is my fade of the week.
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