This weekend we’ve got an early card Sunday morning (10:30am ET). I really do like these early cards so that I will wake up and have a DraftKings perspiration and go out and enjoy the rest of the day when the struggles are over. This Sunday’s card will occur in Hamburg, Germany and there are plenty of fighters making their UFC debut. For this reason, I believe we ought to have a big edge this week should we place in the work. Most casual players won’t be doing research on those titles they have never heard and will just be throwing in lineups trying to get lucky and hit on a huge score. I will personally be pursuing the large $15k top prize in the 8 GPP in addition to the Qualifiers. The majority of my investment will be in cash games, largely H2Hs, but I will be taking multiple shots at these huge prizes. Here are a Couple of plays I like this week in Addition to my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — Stack (Anthony Smith $8,700 AND Shogun Rua $7,500)
It is an arduous card this Sunday and I think we will see a lot of people making mistakes in money games. Whenever I believe I can guarantee a total 100+ points in a struggle, I love to stack it into my money games and lock those points. I think this fight will be a fun one and I highly doubt it goes to the scorecards. I think we could see multiple knockdowns too that would help, but I believe we readily get over 100+ points combined with both of these guys. Let us let everybody else make the mistakes and we could lock at a 100+ points and a win, then we only have to find another 3 wins we are convinced in.
GPP play of this week — Manny Bermudez ($9,200)
I believe that this matchup was set up to get Bermudez a triumph. He has quite a slick entry game and if this fight goes to the floor I think he will pick up advance points quickly and locate a submission. Grant has had issues with entry defense in his profession and even when he’s winning the feet, he still shoots in for takedowns every struggle. I believe if Manny can’t get the takedown himself, then Grant will eventually go to it himself and it will cost him. I believe we could see a 1st round submission here which should easily get the 10x+ we are searching for in his $9.2k price label.
Underdog play of this week — Shogun Rua ($7,500)
If Shogun can win this fight he’ll easily repay this price tag. He has 100-point upside and using a 7.5k salary that will surely put him on the winning lineup if he can arrive. Anthony Smith has been knocked more times than Shogun and has fought considerably worse rivalry. I wouldn’t be shocked if Shogun is able to acquire a KO here against Smith, who is taking this fight on short notice. Shogun has noticeably slowed down from the last few years but I believe that he still has enough in the tank to pull off an upset victory . I do want exposure to both guys in GPPs, but I think you need some vulnerability to Rua if you are making numerous lineups.
Fade of the week — Nick Hein ($8,500)
I have quite a few fades this week and I am going with a smaller player pool in hopes of my selections being right and I can hit the ideal combo. It is tough to choose one favourite fade this week but I shall pick Nick Hein. I really do think Nick Hein will win this fight, and I believe he’ll use takedowns to get the decision win here. So, you would think that seems good on DraftKings because wrestling stands up things. However, he does not chain together takedowns and he usually ends up with just 1 or 2 in his UFC wins. He doesn’t have much finishing ability and that I don’t see him getting a submission. However, I believe we’ll see 2-3 takedowns here and him grinding his way into a Unanimous Decision victory just as we’ve seen from him in the past. Hein includes 4 UFC wins and these are his DraftKings game titles for all those wins: 53 points, 58 points, 65 points, and 71 points. At $8.5k, I am not interested in getting any DK investment on Hein with those scores. That is why he’s my fade of this week.
If you’d like my own full-card DraftKings breakdown using investigation on every struggle, my personal strategies & recommendations, along with also my pick prediction for every single struggle then you can find that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks
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