This weekend we’ve got an early card on Sunday morning (10:30am ET). I do like these early cards so that I will wake up and have a DraftKings sweat and then go out and revel in the rest of the day once the fights are over. This Sunday’s card will take place in Hamburg, Germany and there are a lot of fighters producing their UFC debut. Because of this, I think we ought to have a large edge this week if we put in the job. Most casual players won’t be doing research on those titles they have not heard and will only be throwing lineups seeking to get lucky and hit on a huge score. I’ll personally be chasing the big $15k top prize in the $8 GPP in addition to the Qualifiers. Most of my investment will be in money games, mainly H2Hs, but I’ll be taking numerous shots at these big prizes. Here are a few plays I like this week as well as my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Stack (Anthony Smith $8,700 AND Shogun Rua $7,500)
It is a tough card that Sunday and I believe we’ll see a lot of people making errors in cash games. Any time I believe I can guarantee a complete 100+ points in a struggle, I like to pile it in my cash games and lock in those factors. I believe this battle will be a fun one and I highly doubt it goes to the scorecards. I think we could see multiple knockdowns too that would help, but I believe we readily get over 100+ points together with both of these guys. Let’s let everybody else make the mistakes and we could lock in a 100+ points and a win, then we only need to locate another 3 wins we are convinced in.
GPP play of this week — Manny Bermudez ($9,200)
I believe that this matchup was put up for Bermudez a win. He has a very slick submission game and when this fight goes to the ground I presume he will pick up advance points fast and locate a submission. Grant has had problems with entry defense in his career and even when he’s winning on the toes, he still shoots for takedowns every struggle. I think if Manny can’t get the takedown himself, Grant will gradually go to it himself and it will cost him. I believe we can see a 1st round entry here and that should easily get the 10x+ we’re looking for at his $9.2k price label.
Underdog play of this week — Shogun Rua ($7,500)
In case Shogun can win this battle he will easily pay off this price tag. He has 100-point upside and using a $7.5k salary that will certainly put him on the winning lineup when he can get there. Anthony Smith has been knocked out more times than Shogun and has fought considerably worse rivalry. I would not be surprised if Shogun is able to get a KO here against Smith, who is carrying this fight on short notice. Shogun has noticeably slowed down in the past few years but I believe that he still has enough in the tank to possibly pull off an upset victory . I really do want exposure to both men in GPPs, however I think you want some vulnerability to Rua if you are making numerous lineups.
Fade of this week — Nick Hein ($8,500)
I have a number of fades this week and I am going with a bigger player pool in hopes of my own selections being right and I can hit the ideal combo. It’s tough to choose one favourite fade this week but I will pick Nick Hein. I do think Nick Hein will win this battle, and I believe he will use takedowns to get the decision win here. Thus, you would think that seems good on DraftKings since wrestling stands up things. However, he does not chain together takedowns and that he ends up with just 1 or two in his UFC wins. He doesn’t have much finishing ability and that I don’t see him getting a entry. However, I believe we will see 2-3 takedowns here and him grinding his way into a Unanimous Decision victory as we’ve seen from him previously. Hein has 4 UFC wins and all these are his DraftKings game logs for all those wins: 53 points, 58 points, 65 points, and 71 points. At $8.5k, I’m not interested in having any DK investment on Hein with these scores. That is why he’s my fade of this week.
If you’d like my full-card DraftKings breakdown using investigation on every struggle, my private approaches & recommendations, along with also my pick forecast for every single fight then you can find that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
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