This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Beijing, China. The tournaments are much smaller on DraftKings this week, so I think that it’s a great week to focus more on cash games. The main GPP is an $8 entry that pays $10K to 1st place. That’s the best one to pursue in my view. I will have a couple LUs that I put into a lot of GPPs hoping I will win them all, but I won’t have lots of LUs in total this week. Aside from that, most of my play this week will probably be in the money games. Mostly H2Hs. With that said, here are a few plays I enjoy for UFC Beijing, as well as my fade of this week.
Cash Game play of this week — Song Yadong ($9,100)
I think Song Yadong could be the best drama on the card that weekend and there are 4 fighters priced higher than him. Yadong is a -500 favored on Saturday and I think that is a fight the UFC is needing him to triumph in his home nation. I believe in tournaments, Yadong is going to be the highest owned fighter on the card with 3 girls fighters priced over him, with substantially smaller odds of winning ITD. I think you can make a situation to fade him because of his possession in GPPs, but in cash games we don’t care about ownership. I believe this is a great spot to lock at a win and maybe ~100-points, and then try to find 3 more wins that we are able to afford. More frequently than not 4 wins gets the work done in money games.
GPP drama of the week — Rashad Coulter ($8,400)
This battle has got the 2nd highest FDGTD line on the card in -400. There’s also value on Hu Yaozong together with him being $600 cheaper and the gambling line being almost even. Usually when there is value like that within an underdog it makes them one of the very popular fighters on the card. I really don’t think either of these guys are UFC level fighters, but I’m a bit more impressed by what I have observed from Coulter than this inexperienced Yaozong. I think getting Coulter at GPP lineups at a lower ownership than Yaozong makes sense that weekend at a struggle which shouldn’t go all 3-rounds. If both of those guys get an early finish they will probably be on the winning lineup. I am guessing Coulter are the lower owned man of both and that is what makes him my GPP play of the week.
Underdog drama of the week — Francis Ngannou ($7,500)
There really aren’t many underdogs I love to target this week for UFC Beijing. I haven’t loved producing lineups this week because I hate plugging in 2 underdogs once I think virtually every favorite will get a win. I think the best underdog to aim this week is Francis Ngannou since he has a very clear route to success and he has already won in this matchup before. The path to success for Ngannou is by knockout, and he has the ability to be able to KO anyone on the planet. If he can find a KO at $7.5k then he probably ends upon the 1st spot lineup, especially if it is an early KO. From the first fight between these two guys Blaydes managed to get 2 takedowns, but Ngannou was able to get up pretty fast each time. If he’s able to end up like that here, then I really don’t see any way Blaydes are going to have the cardio to try to wrestle for 5-rounds. I believe Ngannou is your scarier man on the feet and I don’t see Blaydes wanting to attack for extended periods of time. I think Ngannou is reside for an upset here but onto a card, I don’t enjoy many underdogs I believe he is the best you to aim with his 1st round KO upsidedown. Fade of the week — Lauren Mueller ($9,200)
I really don’t like targeting any of these women in the $9k range. I believe that they need to all get wins, but I do not find any of them becoming 10x their salary. For Mueller, she’d want at least 92 DK things to strike 10x and that I think she has to receive a finish to make that occur. Mueller has 5 wins on her MMA record and only 1 of the wins did not go to conclusion. She also only scored 72 DK points in her UFC win. If she scores 72 at $9.2k then she will not be winning anybody a championship. I also believe Zhang and Xiaonan have better odds of winning than Mueller does so that is why I chose her over those two as my fade of this week. I won’t be making a great deal of lineups this week but if I had been making 20 lineups then Mueller will be on among these.
If you’d like my full-card DraftKings breakdown with analysis on each struggle, my personal approaches & suggestions, and my selection outlook for every fight then it is possible to discover that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker should you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
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