This weekend, we have a 13-fight card at Florida. DraftKings has some strong competitions for us to win a great deal of money from this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of $120k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier only competition for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first place cost and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that match. I will attempt to receive my 2nd seat this week if possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers, so be cautious chasing those too hard. I will likely stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw 50-100 entrances at that $25k prize, and then I will likely take a few shots in the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a good amount of drama into money games.
With that said, let us get into a few plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Roosevelt Roberts — $9,500
I expect Roberts to be the much better fighter everywhere this battle goes. I think Gifford’s best shot at a win would be locking up a guillotine. Aside from that, I think we have a fairly safe win here using Roberts and that’s precisely what I am looking for. I want the wins that are safer in money and that I will worry about who is going to score the highest in GPPs. I believe we can eliminate him at the GPPs at his price because when he sets up 90 DK points in a win then that won’t win 25k. It will help us win in cash games though and I would be amazed if he had a low scoring win here. I believe he is excellent for 80-100 points here and I am totally ok with that in my cash lineup.
GPP play of the week — Greg Hardy- $9,300
Hardy is my GPP play of this week and he’s the greatest ITD odds on the card at -222. This is a setup struggle for him to receive a knockout and I think that is most likely going to take place in the very first round. That should put Hardy over 100 things and I am interested in that. Hardy will be among my top plays of this week, but he is GPP just for me. We can not trust him enough for money games, so that’s why I enjoy Roberts more in that format. I really do think Hardy can outscore Roberts though if they win, and he is $200 cheaper. That may knock Roberts off the top lineup and in spite of high ownership we could win that $25k with Hardy in our lineup so long as he gets the first KO. Hardy wins in round 1 is lined at -130 and that is too great for me to pass on in GPPs.
Underdog play of the week — Glover Teixeira — $7,900
Teixeira is no more the underdog on the betting line (-120) however DraftKings salaries do not change as soon as they are released. We receive Teixeira here for $400 less costly than Cutelaba and he’s preferred to get the win. In addition, I believe he can win in the 1st round with a score and submission over 90 points. That would provide him a fantastic chance at being on the optimal lineup. I’ll be targeting both sides of the struggle in GPPs because I don’t expect it to move all 3 rounds, but that value on Teixeira is what I enjoy the most and we need to have”underdogs” within our DK lineups together with the $50k salary cap. I believe the clear path to success for Glover is on the floor and that’s what I anticipate his game must be. I like him to find a entry win if he can land takedowns and he will be among my greatest possessed underdogs this week.
Fade of the week — Carla Esparza ($8,200)
I understand people were expecting me to put Angela Hill as my fade at $9.4k. She is a solid fade as well… However, I’m going with Esparza as my fade this week and I will have zero lineups including her. In general, Esparza is a decent wrestler and we like wrestlers in DraftKings. I simply don’t see wrestling being in her best interest against Jandiroba and that I think she uses her wrestling in defense to attempt and keep this battle on the feet. All the threat is on the ground in this matchup and Carla has the better boxing of the two. I believe she could acquire a 30-27 striking decision but that won’t score highly, and I’d guess it sets up about ~60 DK points. That is not going to cut it at $8.2k so I just don’t see how she ends up on the 25k lineup this week even if she does win, and that is why she is my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick predictions, then you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link too. I am 69-44 to get +224.83u (+$22,483) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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